IT’S STATISTICALLY NORMAL FOR PRESIDENT AQUINO’S RATINGS TO DIP
THE MEDIA SIMPLY HARPED ON THE NEGATIVE AND NOT ON THE OBVIOUS
By Prof. Alfredo S. Sureta, Jr.
Executive Director of StratPOLLS
In our survey of public opinion conducted by StratPOLLS from October 9-13 this year on how the incumbent administration performed during its first 100 days in office, the public gave Pres. Benigno Aquino III a nationwide net satisfaction rating of +62.4% broken down as follows: SATISFIED 81.2%, DISSATISFIED 18.8%. (Satisfied minus Dissatisfied equals the net.)
In July of this year, Aquino earned a rating of 88% in a survey (approval of performance in office) conducted by another polling firm. Late last month the same polling firm conducted what appears to be a second track of the same survey and this time it concluded that Pres. Aquino’s rating dipped by 9%, from 88% down to 79% (which is not far from the 81.2% by our polling firm, StratPOLLS).
The question now is this: Is it possible for the president’s rating to take a dip in a short span of time? My answer is, yes. The next most logical question is: How is it possible?
Decrease in rating not totally unexpected
The nine percent represents erosion on the public’s perception of his performance in office which is statistically quite significant. But such a dip is not totally unexpected because of the simple reason that Aquino started on a very high note, 88% or twelve percent short of the perfect (but impossible) score of 100%. There is no other way for his rating to go but downward and his latest rating of 79% is still high which means that he has a net rating on performance of +58% granting that 21% disapprove.
In a more simplistic interpretation, we can look at the 79% vs 21% this way: If there are 10 persons in a room, 8 of them give the thumbs up sign for Aquino or are saying “yes” while the other 2 are either saying “no” are not saying anything at all. Exponentially: Let’s multiply the figures by 10 and the 10 grows to 100 where 80 of the 100 persons approve of Aquino’s performance in office with only 20 saying otherwise. That number 80 (or 79) is still high.
Media simply harped on the negative
The media simply harped on the negative (which is the 9% dip) and not on the obvious which is the 79% or the 79 (or 790 or 7,900 or 790,000) number of persons who are “still rooting for Aquino,” and possibly who wants him to succeed. Media always want to emphasize that part of the story that sells which is why a story that says boxing icon Manny Pacquio should retire would sell better than a story which says that Pacquio needs six weeks of rest.
What bears watching for Aquino is what the figures will say in December, that’s next month when pollsters and polling firms shall conduct the year-end or fourth quarter survey. If the 79% dips further, and significantly, then that is a story.
Ref. 0916 536 0003
November 17, 2010